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Bluff Poker Strategy
Pure Bluff
A pure bluff, or stone-cold bluff, is a bet or raise with an inferior hand that has little or no chance of improving. A player making a pure bluff believes he can only win the pot if all opponents fold. The pot odds for a bluff are the ratio of the size of the bluff to the pot. A pure bluff has a positive expection (will be profitable in the long run) when the probability of being called by an opponent is lower than the pot odds for the bluff. For example, if after all the cards are out, a player holding a busted drawing hand may decide the only way to win the pot is to make a pure bluff. If the player bets the size of the pot on a pure bluff, the bluff will have a positive expecation if the probability of being called is less than 50%. Note, however, that the opponent may also consider the pot odds when deciding whether call. In this example, the opponent will be facing 1-to-2 pot odds for the call. The opponent will have a positive expecation for calling the bluff if the opponent believes the probabability the player is bluffing is at least 33%.
Semi-bluff
Bluffing may be more effective in some circumstances than others. Bluffs have a higher expectation when the probability of being called decreases. Several game circumstances may decrease the probability of being called (and increase the profitability of the bluff):
- fewer opponents who must fold to the bluff
- the bluff provides less favorable pot odds to opponents for a call
- a scare card comes that increases the number of superior hands that the player may be perceived to have
- the player's betting pattern in the hand has been consistent with the superior hand they are representing with the bluff
- the opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a marginal hand that is vulnerable to a greater number of potential superior hands
- the opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a drawing hand and the bluff provides unfavorable pot odds to the opponent for chasing the draw
- opponents are not irrationally committed to the pot (see sunk cost fallacy)
Optimal bluffing frequency
If a player bluffs too infrequently, observant opponents will recognize that the player is betting for value and will only call with very strong hands or with drawing hands when they are receiving favorable pot odds. If a player bluffs too frequently, observant opponents snap-off his bluffs by calling or reraising.Occasional bluffing disguises not just the hands a player is bluffing with, but also his legitimate hands that opponents may think he may be bluffing with. David Sklansky, in his book The Theory of Poker, states "Mathematically, the optimal bluffing strategy is to bluff in such a way that the chances against your bluffing are identical to the pot odds your opponent is getting."
Optimal bluffing also requires that the bluffsmust be performed in such a manner that opponents cannot tell when a player is bluffing or not. To prevent bluffs from occurring in a predictable pattern, game theory suggests the use of a randomizing agent to determine whether to bluff. For example, a player might use the colors of his hidden cards, the second hand on his watch, or some other unpredictable mechanism to determine whether to bluff.
